Confronting Statistical Sources of Fiscal Budget for Mexico, 1934-1956

Abstract

The budget balance is the main indicator to evaluate the fiscal policy and its macroeconomic impact. The objective of this study is to confront the series of the budget balance provided by the primary and secondary sources and find out which is the most adequate for economic history research in the period 1934-1956. Our hypothesis states that the primary source in gross terms, which is based on the income/expenditure/balance methodology, is not adequate to evaluate the government policy because it includes items that distorts the fiscal balance and its macroeconomic impact. The way to resolve this issue is to use the primary source that applies the methodology to calculate the fiscal balance through its financing. The secondary sources based on the first option reproduced the noted deficiency and affected the historical interpretation, something that is shown with a methodological analysis of the historiography on the performance of the public finances.